Unlocking Exponential Growth: Transform Your Financial Future Today

Each month in PWM, nine top European asset allocators reveal how they would spend €100,000 in a fund supermarket for a fairly conservative client with a balanced strategy.

Benjamin Hamidi

Bạn đang xem: Fund Selection — December 2024

Senior portfolio manager, ABN AMRO Investment Solutions. 

Based in: Paris, France

“Global activity is still expanding and services continue to be the main driver of world growth. Nevertheless, major regional disparities remain: in the eurozone, activity is now in contraction territory, while in the US it continues to expand. Growth is holding up and now seems to be fuelled by strong confidence in president-elect Donald Trump’s pro-business policies. Against this backdrop, exposure to equities is being maintained and duration is being contained. Growth and US equities are favoured and are benefiting from the enthusiasm for US assets. We remain vigilant with regard to political risk, particularly in Europe.”

Luca Dal Mas

Senior fund analyst, Aviva Investors. 

Based in: London, UK

“November’s economic survey data continued October’s theme with the US going from strength to strength, while the euro area and the UK remain soft. This is having an impact on the consumer expectations survey that shows a rise in longer term inflation expectations, which may impact Fed decisions down the road. The US election result had a positive impact on equities, with smaller capitalisation stocks in the US enjoying a tailwind on the basis of a more positive environment for corporates (deregulation, improved growth via fiscal and corporate tax cuts). In portfolios we have added exposure to US equities from Europe, given the weaker outlook and likely trade implications, with higher tariffs a significant risk.”

Jorge Velasco

Director of Investment Strategy, CaixaBank Private Banking. 

Based in: Madrid, Spain

“The high geopolitical uncertainty in the coming months leads us to add a dose of caution. To the ones we already had — such as the war in Ukraine, in the Middle East, or the political (and economic) instability in France — we add the uncertainty of what the new Trump administration will bring and the difficulty of fitting its electoral program, or what may result from the unexpected German elections in terms of fiscal policy, in a country that has recently been characterized by much political stability. All this translates into an environment of lower conviction in our positioning. Greater uncertainty should bring greater volatility, which implies more opportunities for active management; it also implies a need to be more tactical. To be prepared, and to take advantage of the environment when it gives us the opportunity, we lower the exposure to neutral positions to try to buy when the time is right. Additionally, we are replacing our exposure to the climate change theme with investments in security (national, supply chain, and energy security).”

Xem thêm : BlackRock Recommends Bitcoin Allocation: Here’s How Much Should Be in Your Portfolio

Adam Norris

Portfolio Manager, Colombia Threadneedle Investments. 

Based in: London, UK

“While there are scripts of commentary on the outcome of US presidential election, we pay equal interest to the Republican gains in Congress. With a majority in both houses, as well as the White House, there is little preventing the deregulatory programme of the incoming administration. We used November to realign our asset allocation into funds likely to benefit from this agenda. We increased our allocation to US equities, trimming all other equity regions and fully selling Magallanes Value Investors UCITS Fund. In addition, we added Alger Focus Equity Fund to our portfolios, a boutique equity manager with an unashamed US growth bias. We further reduced our allocations to investment-grade credit. The portfolio now has an enhanced overweight to equities, favouring US.”

Silvia Tenconi

Multimanager Investments & Unit Linked, Eurizon Capital SGR. 

Based in: Milan, Italy

“In November the performance of the portfolio was positive, with Robeco US Select Opportunities and UBS USA Growth contributing the most. Donald Trump’s election victory was welcomed by the US equity market, while Europe and Japan closed the month roughly flat, and Emerging Markets corrected. Interest rates in the US and Eurozone came down, yet the presumably inflationary pro-growth policies suggested by the president-elect kept US rates well above the minimum reached in September. The US dollar appreciated quite significantly against the euro. We keep our portfolio unchanged for now.”

Richard Troue 

Fund Manager, Hargreaves Lansdown Fund Managers. 

Based in: Bristol, UK

“This month I’ve added an investment in JPM Global Government Bond to the portfolio. This is a core global government bond fund that aims to deliver modest and steady excess returns. It has a good track record of beating the index and passive equivalents. It should bring useful diversification to some of the riskier positions in the portfolio in the event of a risk-off environment. To make way for the introduction of the JPM fund, M&G Global Macro Bond has been sold.”

Xem thêm : BlackRock’s Bitcoin Strategy: 1-2% Portfolio Allocation Suggested

Paul Hookway

Senior Fund Analyst, Kleinwort Hambros. 

Based in: London, UK

“The US election turned out to a significant win for the Republicans, who now control all branches of government. This gives president-elect Trump a clear path to implement his polices, in particular tariffs and tax cuts. We expect tariffs to be inflationary, keeping rates higher than expected which should be positive for the US dollar. We remain unhedged to sterling for our US dollar exposure. Tax cuts will benefit US companies and in particular mid cap names. To benefit, we added a new holding of the SPDR S&P 500 US Mid Cap ETF, funded by a reduction in emerging market exposure, which may suffer from a stronger US dollar.”

Antti Saari

Chief Investment Strategist, Nordea investments.

Based in: Copenhagen, Denmark

“We reduce the overweight in equities versus government bonds to neutral. After the strong performance in equities sentiment, positioning and valuations in the US have become quite stretched and the economic outlook is also a bit more uncertain due to US politics. We stay neutral on regions and prefer to get exposure to the potential positive effects of the new Trump administration within sectors where we overweight financials and industrials. Within fixed income, we reduce the overweight in US investment grade to neutral and increase the overweight in European investment grade. Low spreads, high hedging costs and duration risk argues for taking profit on US investment grade.”

Didier Chan-Voc-Chun

Head of Multi-Management and Fund Research at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP).

Based in: Geneva, Switzerland

“Trump is back. His unsurprising return to the White House signals a new political era that is poised to deliver a stronger-than-expected economic boost, driven by business-friendly policies and lower taxes. The resilience of the global economy will depend on policy support: in high-growth countries, it will not be necessary to cut policy rates below neutral, particularly in the case of the Fed, and it should be sufficient to ease credit constraints to support investment. We have increased the equity sleeve, funded by cash and by reducing our emerging market debt exposure.”