What are Fallen Angel Bonds?
Fallen angel bonds start their life cycle with an investment-grade rating from major rating services such as Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, and Moody’s. However, due to financial difficulties like declining revenues or increasing debt levels, these bonds are downgraded to junk bond status. This downgrade can be triggered by a variety of factors including economic downturns, industry disruptions, or company-specific issues.
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For example, a company might see its revenue decline significantly due to market changes or increased competition. As a result, its debt-to-equity ratio might increase, leading rating agencies to reassess its creditworthiness and ultimately downgrade its bonds.
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Characteristics of Fallen Angel Bonds
Despite their junk bond status, fallen angel bonds often retain higher credit quality compared to other high-yield bonds. Many fallen angels are rated BB, which is still relatively high within the high-yield spectrum. This higher credit quality translates into lower default rates; historically, fallen angels have shown default rates of around 3.51%, significantly lower than the 4.51% default rate of original-issue high-yield bonds.
The market reaction to a downgrade is also noteworthy. Before the downgrade, there is often selling pressure from investment-grade restricted funds that must offload these now non-compliant assets. However, contrarian investors see this as an opportunity and step in to buy these bonds at lower prices, anticipating potential recovery and higher yields.
Investment Strategies for Fallen Angels
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Investing in fallen angel bonds can be a contrarian approach that leverages the potential for recovery and higher yields during the transition period. One key concept here is convexity, which suggests that fallen angels offer better upside versus downside potential due to their lower prices and similar yields to other high-yield bonds.
Investors can also consider fallen angel bond funds and ETFs, such as the VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High-Yield Bond ETF and the iShares Fallen Angels USD Bond ETF. These funds provide diversified exposure to a portfolio of fallen angel bonds, mitigating some of the individual bond risks.
Risks and Challenges
While investing in fallen angel bonds can be lucrative, it is not without risks. The primary risk is the potential for default if the issuing company fails to recover from its financial distress. Market conditions can also exacerbate these risks; economic downturns or sector-specific challenges can further weaken a company’s financial health.
Active management and careful portfolio construction are crucial in mitigating these risks. Investors need to conduct thorough research and monitoring to ensure that they are not overly exposed to any single issuer or sector.
Comparative Performance
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Historically, fallen angel bonds have outperformed other high-yield bonds in various market environments. This outperformance can be attributed to structural inefficiencies in the market; when bonds transition from investment-grade to high-yield status, they often become undervalued due to forced selling by investment-grade funds.
This creates an opportunity for savvy investors who can capitalize on these mispricings. By investing in fallen angels at their nadir, investors can potentially capture significant returns as these bonds recover or are upgraded back to investment-grade status.
Case Studies and Examples
One notable example is American International Group (AIG), which was downgraded during the financial crisis but later recovered. AIG’s story illustrates how companies can regain their financial health through restructuring and strategic management.
On the other hand, some companies fail to recover from their financial distress. For instance, companies in highly competitive or declining industries may struggle to regain their footing even after significant efforts.
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