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In a world of high interest rates, staying invested is crucial to capturing income. Equities should continue to deliver solid returns, although they may struggle to match the exceptional run they have enjoyed for the past decade. We are therefore increasing portfolio exposures to alternative assets. Where appropriate, portfolios should also include private assets alongside more liquid investments.

Bạn đang xem: Preparing portfolios for the coming decade

The strategic asset allocation (SAA) that underlies a financial portfolio makes up the bulk of its investment returns. This is why we take great care building this long-term portfolio framework. We periodically adjust the SAA based on our expected asset class returns for the decade ahead. By supplementing it with tactical investment decisions, we also target shorter-term market opportunities.

Rising international competition and tensions continue to reshape global investment opportunities. These forces are also driving public and private spending towards sectors deemed strategically important, such as technology. The impact of climate change, conflict and volatile access to resources around the world are also redrawing the investment landscape. Combined, these elements are creating slightly higher ‘neutral’ interest rates in most regions compared with the pre-pandemic era. ‘Neutral’ interest rates neither drive nor constrain economic growth. Structurally higher interest rates, together with asset classes’ starting valuations, will determine the broad outline of investment returns in the decade ahead.

It makes sense for long-term investors to take a ‘total wealth’ approach

Faced with this opportunity set, we continue to believe that it makes sense for long-term investors to take a ‘total wealth’ approach to their portfolio, rather than seeing each asset class or investment in isolation. Where appropriate, this approach will include private assets as part of the SAA. Private equity, private debt, infrastructure and real estate can each offer significant portfolio diversification and return advantages for investors prepared to sacrifice some liquidity.

Equities and bonds – the core portfolio holdings

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Equities give investors access to corporate growth and profitability. Stocks therefore provide the backbone of portfolio allocations for investors seeking to grow their capital. Equity market returns are driven by corporate earnings, where rising global investment needs support the medium-term outlook. However, the above-average returns that equities have delivered over the past decade may be hard to repeat. Company valuations are now high, and the returns that the asset class delivers above government bonds or the ‘equity risk premium’, are low versus recent history, particularly for the US market.

While we remain positive on equities over the coming year, we expect returns in the coming decade to be slightly lower than those delivered over the past ten years. Here, artificial intelligence (AI) could yet deliver a productivity boost to lift returns, particularly for US stocks.

Bonds should continue to provide a steady source of income for portfolios, particularly corporate bonds, where yields are currently high versus history. Over the coming decade, we expect higher returns for corporate bonds than in the past 10 years, with lower volatility on average than in equities. Tight spreads, or the difference between yields on corporate and sovereign bonds, partly reflect low refinancing needs and strong corporate fundamentals, including manageable debt levels.

Hedge funds look particularly well positioned to benefit from environments characterised by higher volatility and increased dispersion of returns

The diversification properties of sovereign bonds have returned to more typical levels, along with more usual negative correlations to equities. However, while sovereign bonds will continue to help shield portfolios from growth shocks, they will require complementary solutions to bolster portfolio resilience. We are therefore increasing portfolio allocations to hedge funds.

Raising allocations to alternative investments

Hedge funds look particularly well positioned to benefit from environments characterised by higher volatility and increased dispersion of returns between and among asset classes. As such, hedge funds are well suited to capitalise on a less ‘directional’ equity market – with uptrends interspersed with reversals – that we expect over the next decade. By broadening the sources of diversification in portfolios, hedge funds provide a compelling tool with which to navigate various economic regimes, and potentially greater asset class volatility in a Trump administration.

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Within hedge funds, performance dispersion between the best performing managers and the broader index can be wide. Manager selection therefore plays a significant role in performance. Within alternative investments, we also keep a standalone exposure to gold in portfolios. As well as offering diversification, gold can provide a hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks. In the decade ahead we also expect gold prices to be supported by central banks as they continue to diversify their reserves away from US dollars.

Switzerland – an exception

Switzerland is the exception to developed markets’ structurally higher interest rates. We expect the Swiss neutral interest rate to be just 1%. Such low interest rates make achieving returns with Swiss sovereign or even corporate bonds challenging. In Swiss-franc denominated portfolios we therefore include a standalone allocation to Swiss real estate, to improve yields and income.

Adapting portfolios to change

With these changes, we seek to equip portfolios for a changing world. Intense geopolitical rivalries should continue driving investment in technology and AI, and central banks to diversify their reserves. Growth across developed markets, including China, should slow as working age populations decline. Increased demand for investment, including for healthcare, defence, and climate needs, is likely to push equilibrium interest rates to slightly higher levels than seen in the pre-pandemic era. With more exposure to alternative assets, sources of diversification, and sources of additional yield for Swiss investors, we are equipping our portfolios accordingly.

What is the SAA and why update it?

Our SAA serves as the foundation of our multi-asset portfolios, guiding asset allocations decisions based on macroeconomic trends and projected asset class returns over the next decade. Regular SAA reviews are integral to our wealth management approach, ensuring that clients’ portfolios remain positioned for success over the long term. Our goal is to deliver one of the most resilient asset allocation frameworks available to private investors.

The changes we made to portfolios’ strategic framework in late 2023 delivered solid returns in 2024. Portfolios benefited from a tilt towards US assets and higher exposure to high yield bonds. They also benefited from reduced allocations to Chinese assets and emerging market debt in local currency. Our strategic allocation to gold benefited from large gains for the metal in 2024.