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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Any projections should be regarded as hypothetical in nature and do not reflect or guarantee future results.
Bạn đang xem: Partner Insight: The global 60/40 portfolio
Source: Refinitiv as at 31 July 2024 and Vanguard calculations in GBP. Notes: This chart shows the actual 10-year annualised return of a 60/40 portfolio in GBP compared with the VCMM forecast made based on data available 10 years earlier. For example, the June 2014 data at the beginning of the chart show the actual return for the 10-year period between 30 June 2004 and 30 June 2014 (red line) compared with the 10-year return forecast made on 30 June 2004 (green line). After June 2024, the green line is extended to show how our forecasts made between 30 September 2014 and 30 June 2024 (ending between 30 September 2024 and 30 June 2034) are evolving. The interquartile range (green shaded area) represents the area between the 25th and 75th percentile of the return distribution
IMPORTANT: The projections and other information generated by the VCMM regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modelled asset class. Simulations are every quarter, between 30 June 2004 and 30 June 2024. Results from the model may vary with each use and over time.
It’s easy to get caught up in the noise and year-to-year absolute returns. That is why we encourage our clients to focus on what they can control—their goals, asset allocation, costs and discipline in implementing their investment strategy.
The strategic asset allocation and ‘steady as she goes’ results of a globally diversified balanced portfolio are a great starting place for long-term investors and that is as true today as any time in history. The 60/40 portfolio has been a remarkably consistent performer over the long-term and, with the tailwind of higher bond yields and a more balanced outlook, we see it as poised for another strong decade of results.
1 Vanguard calculations, based on data from Standard & Poor’s, MSCI, and Bloomberg, for the period from 1 January 2022 until 31 December 2022 in US dollar terms. For the globally diversified 60/40 portfolio, we used the following proxies: for US stocks, a 36% weighting in the CRSP US Total Market Index; for non-US stocks, a 24% weighting in the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index; for US bonds, a 28% weighting in the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Bond Index; and for non-US bonds, a 12% weighting in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Float Adjusted ex-USD Index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
2 Vanguard calculations, based on data from Standard & Poor’s, MSCI, and Bloomberg, for the period from 30 December 2022, to 30 September 2024 in US dollar terms. For information about the proxies used in the globally diversified 60/40 portfolio, see footnote 1. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
3 Vanguard calculations, based on data from Standard & Poor’s, MSCI and Bloomberg, for the period from 1 January 1997 until 30 September 2024 in US dollar terms. For the globally diversified 60/40 portfolio, we used the following proxies: for US stocks, a 36% weighting in the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index (formerly known as the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index) until 22 April 2005, the MSCI US Broad Market Index through June 2, 2013, and the CRSP US Total Market Index thereafter; for non-US stocks, a 24% weighting in the Total International Composite Index until 31 August 2006, the MSCI EAFE + Emerging Markets Index until 15 December 2010, the MSCI ACWI ex USA IMI Index until 2 June 2013, and the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index thereafter; for US bonds, a 28% weighting in the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Bond Index; and for non-US bonds, a 12% weighting in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Float Adjusted ex-USD Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
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IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. VCMM results will vary with each use and over time. The VCMM projections are based on a statistical analysis of historical data. Future returns may behave differently from the historical patterns captured in the VCMM. More important, the VCMM may be underestimating extreme negative scenarios unobserved in the historical period on which the model estimation is based.
The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® is a proprietary financial simulation tool developed and maintained by Vanguard’s primary investment research and advice teams. The model forecasts distributions of future returns for a wide array of broad asset classes. Those asset classes include US and international equity markets, several maturities of the U.S. Treasury and corporate fixed income markets, international fixed income markets, US money markets, commodities, and certain alternative investment strategies. The theoretical and empirical foundation for the Vanguard Capital Markets Model is that the returns of various asset classes reflect the compensation investors require for bearing different types of systematic risk (beta). At the core of the model are estimates of the dynamic statistical relationship between risk factors and asset returns, obtained from statistical analysis based on available monthly financial and economic data from as early as 1960. Using a system of estimated equations, the model then applies a Monte Carlo simulation method to project the estimated interrelationships among risk factors and asset classes as well as uncertainty and randomness over time. The model generates a large set of simulated outcomes for each asset class over several time horizons. Forecasts are obtained by computing measures of central tendency in these simulations. Results produced by the tool will vary with each use and over time.
The primary value of the VCMM is in its application to analysing potential client portfolios. VCMM asset-class forecasts—comprising distributions of expected returns, volatilities, and correlations—are key to the evaluation of potential downside risks, various risk–return trade-offs, and the diversification benefits of various asset classes. Although central tendencies are generated in any return distribution, Vanguard stresses that focusing on the full range of potential outcomes for the assets considered, such as the data presented in this paper, is the most effective way to use VCMM output.
The VCMM seeks to represent the uncertainty in the forecast by generating a wide range of potential outcomes. It is important to recognise that the VCMM does not impose “normality” on the return distributions, but rather is influenced by the so-called fat tails and skewness in the empirical distribution of modeled asset-class returns. Within the range of outcomes, individual experiences can be quite different, underscoring the varied nature of potential future paths. Indeed, this is a key reason why we approach asset-return outlooks in a distributional framework.
Investment risk information
The value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise and investors may get back less than they invested.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Some funds invest in emerging markets which can be more volatile than more established markets. As a result the value of your investment may rise or fall.
Investments in smaller companies may be more volatile than investments in well-established blue chip companies.
The Vanguard LifeStrategy® Funds may invest in Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) shares.
ETF shares can be bought or sold only through a broker. Investing in ETFs entails stockbroker commission and a bid- offer spread which should be considered fully before investing.
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Funds investing in fixed interest securities carry the risk of default on repayment and erosion of the capital value of your investment and the level of income may fluctuate. Movements in interest rates are likely to affect the capital value of fixed interest securities. Corporate bonds may provide higher yields but as such may carry greater credit risk increasing the risk of default on repayment and erosion of the capital value of your investment. The level of income may fluctuate and movements in interest rates are likely to affect the capital value of bonds.
The Funds may use derivatives in order to reduce risk or cost and/or generate extra income or growth. The use of derivatives could increase or reduce exposure to underlying assets and result in greater fluctuations of the Fund’s net asset value. A derivative is a financial contract whose value is based on the value of a financial asset (such as a share, bond, or currency) or a market index.
For further information on risks please see the “Risk Factors” section of the prospectus on our website.
Important information
This is directed at professional investors and should not be distributed to, or relied upon by retail investors.
For further information on the fund’s investment policies and risks, please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS and to the KIID before making any final investment decisions. The KIID for this fund is available, alongside the prospectus via Vanguard’s website.
This is designed for use by, and is directed only at persons resident in the UK.
The information contained herein is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation is against the law, or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation, or if the person making the offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so. The information is general in nature and does not constitute legal, tax, or investment advice. Potential investors are urged to consult their professional advisers on the implications of making an investment in, holding or disposing of shares and /or units of, and the receipt of distribution from any investment.
The Authorised Corporate Director for Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds ICVC is Vanguard Investments UK, Limited. Vanguard Asset Management, Limited is a distributor of Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds ICVC.
For investors in UK domiciled funds, see our summary of investor rights this is available in English.
Issued by Vanguard Asset Management Limited, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.
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